News Digest: French Election Results – Is There Still Hope to Oust the Far Right?

All eyes – and headlines – were on France this Sunday as the first rounds of parliamentary elections took place. As the results of the exit polls were released, it became clear that President Macron’s gamble of calling a snap parliamentary election – a reaction to the soaring popularity of Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) party in the recent EU elections – had not paid off.

The final results show the far-right party, led by Jordan Bardella, taking 33.4% of the votes, while the alliance of leftist parties, the Nouveau Front Populaire, came in second with 20.8% of the votes, followed by Macron’s centrist party with 20.8, and Les Republicains with 10.2%. The Rassemblement National took the lead in 296 of France’s 577 constituencies and won 39 of them outright with over 50% of the vote (where one candidate reaches an absolute majority in the first round, the candidate is elected within having to go through the second round). Overall turnout for the election was 66.7%, the highest first-round turnout for the legislative elections since 1997.

So, what happens now?

The second and final round of elections will take place this Sunday, July 7th, will pit the top two candidates against each other, alongside any candidate with more than 12.5% . It’s traditional for lower-scoring candidates to withdraw, but it’s equally possible that there will still be some three- or four-way elections on Sunday. The final list of candidates will be announced tomorrow (Wednesday).

The Rassemblement National is projected to win anything between 260 to 310 seats in parliament – 280 would give them an absolute majority, which would considerably weaken Macron’s power over both national and international policy.

What does this mean for foreigners in France?

Well, we’re not going to lie – a Rassemblement National government would not be good news for foreigners in France. Even looking outside of the party’s long history of extreme-right beliefs, their current “France First” manifesto, denounced as unconstitutional by many, would create a huge division between France-born nationals and immigrants, essentially rendering non-French residents as second-class citizens. The party’s push to reduce immigration at all costs would likely also make it harder to move to France, as well as affording fewer rights to those who already live there. However, it’s important to note that many of these policies may never see the light of day – and many may be deemed unconstitutional and thrown out by France’s Constitutional Council if they do.

Secondly, let’s not forget that the final votes have not yet been cast, and a Rassemblement National majority is not a given. While the surge of RN support is unlikely to change course completely, there is still hope that they will fall short of a majority. One thing’s for sure: this next week will be pivotal in deciding the direction the country will go in the coming years.

If you want to understand more about the upcoming French elections, here are a few recommended articles:

Macron is history, Le Pen is triumphant. What do ‘reasonable’ French voters like me do now?

French far right eyes power as rivals wrangle over scope of anti-Le Pen front

OPINION: The best France can hope for now is 12 months of turmoil

In lighter news, this weekend is not just election day – it’s also the start of the summer holidays for many families across France. Schools in all French zones break up for their summer holidays at the end of the week – either on Friday, July 5th, or on July 6th, if they have Saturday morning classes.

The holidays last until September 1st, giving children eight weeks in total off school. With schools closing, expect the first wave of holidaymakers to hit the road this weekend. Traffic is set to be higher than usual along France’s major motorways, so avoid traveling unless you have to, and keep an eye on the traffic if you do – the French website Bison Futé provides real-time traffic information.

After beating long-time rivals Belgium 1-0 last night, France has secured its place in the quarter-finals of the Euro 2024. Their next match is against Portugal this Friday, July 5th, at 9pm CET.

In other sporting news, the Tour de France crosses into France today (Tues) after starting in Florence on June 29th. The cyclists have now completed the first three stages of the race in Italy and will tackle the 4th stage through the French and Italian Alps to Valloire in the Savoie department of southeast France.

The big event of the year, the 2024 Paris Olympics, is also just a few weeks away. The grand opening ceremony will take place on Friday, 26^th July, including a parade of athletes along the Seine – the first Olympics opening ceremony to take place outside of a stadium.