Sterling Update: Resilience in the housing market

Here’s the latest currency news from our partner Moneycorp, to help you find out what your money is worth.

GBP

This week has been relatively quiet on the data from the UK. The monthly UK Nationwide House Price Index was released this morning, which is expected to fall from 0.7% to 0.3%. The data instead came in above expectation, remaining at the 0.7% seen in the previous month. The metric indicates the change in the selling price of homes backed by Nationwide mortgages, so it could indicate resilience in the UK housing market.

Next week spells another quiet week for the pound, with no significant data releases. However, sterling could still be impacted by the European Central Bank’s rate decision and employment data released in the US as markets try to predict how this year’s monetary policy decisions will unfold.

EUR

The only notable data out this week was German month-on-month Preliminary CPI inflation data. Forecasters expected CPI to rise from 0.2% to 0.5%, but the data showed that German inflation was 0.4%. This could support the anticipated rate cuts from the European Central Bank that forecasts currently expect to be initiated by the middle of the year. According to the statistics office, year-on-year consumer prices increased by 2.5% compared to a year ago, marking a decline from January’s 3.1%. This figure also aligned closely with economists’ forecasts. Additionally, recent data revealed a moderation in inflation in France and Spain, although Spain did experience a slightly higher outcome than anticipated.

Next week, we’ll see the European Central Bank make its latest decision on interest rates on Thursday. Although it’s anticipated that the European Central Bank will maintain its current interest rates, markets will still be focused on the messaging around future monetary policy in the press conference.

Market forecasts are currently anticipating three to four cuts this year, with the initial cut coming around June or July. This is a significant delay and reduction in the cuts predicted earlier in the year. The euro’s value seems to have been determined by the performance of other currencies so far this year, particularly by the dollar’s strength; however, how the ECB chooses to navigate the next meeting could potentially influence euro performance.

Disclaimer: This commentary does not constitute financial advice