Sterling Update: Jobs Data & EUR Growth Forecasts

Here’s the latest currency news from our partner Moneycorp, to help you find out what your money is worth.

GBP

This week was relatively quiet in terms of data releases. The highlights were the UK’s Claimant Count Change and the Average Earnings Index which were released on Tuesday at 7am.

The Claimant Count Change, which measures the change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits, was expected to increase to 13.9K from 10.9K last month but came in significantly below expectations at 8.9K. Average earnings were expected to increase by 5.3%, down from April’s 5.6% reading, but instead came in at 5.7%. The overall unemployment rate increased to 4.3% from the 4.2% seen in March, in line with market forecasts. The data seemed to have very little impact on the pound. However, some reports touched on how a cooling UK jobs market could increase the probability of an interest rate cut sooner rather than later.

Next week we’ll see the latest Services and Manufacturing PMIs released on Thursday and Retails Sales data from April due for release on Friday. Markets will be looking to see if the UK can continue to build on the overall upward trajectory on both Purchase Managers Index reports, as well as whether consumer spending will move the dial on the 0% readings seen in both February and March.

EUR

This week, the European Commission released its latest macroeconomic forecasts. The Commission publishes this report four times a year and focuses primarily on growth and inflation. The previous forecasts released in February downgraded the growth outlook for 2024. The Spring forecasts reported a “slight uptick” in projections for growth across the EU, with GDP growth now expected to come in at 1% for 2024. The report described a comeback from the EU economy following a “prolonged period of stagnation” after it achieved an estimated 0.3% growth in the first quarter of the year.

Monday, we also saw the Eurogroup Meetings, in which the Eurogroup President, Finance Ministers from euro area member states, the Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs, and the President of the European Central Bank met to discuss a range of financial issues. The meeting was followed by a formal statement.

There will be a host of PMI data releases from across the EU next week. Policymakers in the bloc will be hoping the data builds on last month’s positivity after overall business activity expanded at its fastest rate in nearly a year, with the dominant services industry offsetting a slight downturn in manufacturing.

None of the information contained in this document constitutes, nor should be construed as, financial advice.